Festival demand is arithmetic wearing lights, and this year's setup stacks unusually clean.
The tax cut lands first. GST 2.0 switches on September 22 — staples, small cars, cement and appliances cheaper precisely as festival inventories build. Companies guided pass-through; Diwali bills will audit them.
Fuel is a tailwind again. Sub-$90 crude has held a month; the March excise cuts never reversed. Two-wheeler economics — the truest rural-demand gauge — look their best in three festival cycles.
EMIs may join. An August cut transmits to home and auto loans inside the quarter — the timing is almost suspiciously kind.
Real wages flipped positive. With CPI at 3.9 and rural CPI below urban for three months, the wage-price race is being won by wages for the first time since the war.
The inventory tell: consumer-durable channel stocking in July ran ahead of any year since 2015 — retailers bet their own money before economists bet forecasts.
Vegetables and one unsigned ceasefire remain the spoilers on file. Trades and tracking on the economy desk.
